Romney vs. Huckabee in 2012

It's way too early to start making predictions but I'm going to do it anyway. Senator McCain certainly has a chance of winning this November, but right now the smart money is on Senator Obama. If Obama does win, who will be the Republican nominee in 2012? A story in the Washington Post today sheds light on this question, pointing out the recent trend in Republican politics of nominating the candidate that came in second in the previous contest.

When you go back more than 30 years to the birth of the modern presidential primary system, in fact, the only Republican to have won his party's nomination for president without having come in second in the previous open primary election was George W. Bush, who sought the presidency for the first time in 2000. But even this is barely an exception to the rule, because the Republican who came in second in the previous open election, in 1996, was Pat Buchanan -- and he ran for president in 2000 as the candidate of the Reform Party.

At this point in the campaign, Romney is considered the runner up to McCain and is well-positioned to win the nomination in four years should McCain lose this November. This explains why Governor Huckabee has stubbornly refused to withdraw from the race. He wants to run again and wants to be seen as the true runner up in this year's contest. Hopefully Republicans will remember that this race was really between McCain and Romney, and that it was Romney who quickly withdrew and graciously backed the eventual nominee.

Bush Against Romney Because of Immigration?

Robert Novak reports that President Bush won’t support Mitt Romney because he changed his mind about the amnesty bill.

While President George W. Bush has maintained neutrality among contenders for the Republican presidential nomination, he privately expresses to friends his exasperation with Mitt Romney's hard-line stance on immigration.

Bush is upset that Romney changed his position on the issue, compared to what it had been when he was governor of Massachusetts, at the expense of the president's immigration reform. Bush and Sen. John McCain are not close, but the president is grateful for McCain's support on Iraq and immigration.

A footnote: The president's younger brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, has not endorsed any presidential candidate. But he and his political allies were behind Romney's losing effort in last Tuesday's Florida primary.

I'm so mad I don't know what to say. This is outrageous! I hope people vote for Romney purely out of spite.

Romney on Social Security Reform

There is a fascinating post over at Ground Game about the unidentified voice that was heard after Tim Russert asked Mitt Romney how he would save Social Security.

During last night's debate, Mitt Romney was asked if he would emulate Ronald Reagan's 1983 Social Security reforms. As the question was being asked, viewers could hear an unidentified voice whispering, "raise taxes." Was it a MSNBC producer accidentally speaking over the air? A Romney surrogate tipping the candidate toward his answer? Seems a bit paranoid, but that hasn't stopped bloggers from discussing. Maybe it was the box on President Bush's back from the 2004 debate? Listen and watch for yourself:

Setting aside the conspiracy theories, I thought Romney's answer was pretty good on its substance. Taxes should not be raised and personal savings should be allowed. Romney left the door open to increasing the retirement age and to benefit cuts for those with higher incomes. Hopefully he wouldn't pursue a "comprehensive" fix like President did, which ultimately failed under its own weight. Social Security is a major problem that may need to be solved in stages. The first step should be to stop the raid on the Social Security trust fund and allow Americans to save a portion of their taxes in personal retirement accounts. Congress shouldn't be allowed to steal this money for spending on other government programs.

My Michigan Prediction...

...assuming Buzz is correct and Romney wins tonight, rival campaigns will send their surrogates out to discredit the victory, pointing mostly to this...the MSM which already hates Romney, will gladly play along.

UPDATE: John Hawkins has more predictions here.