Preparing for a changing of the guard

On Tuesday former House Speaker Newt Gingrich sounded the alarm. In a memo to Congressional Republicans Gingrich pleaded for a change of course. Without "real change," Gingrich wrote his colleagues, the GOP was sure to suffer "real disaster" at the polls this fall.

To his credit Gingrich outlined a legitimate agenda that he believes could be a rode map to electoral success. A moratorium on earmarks, promoting nuclear energy and promoting judges who will uphold the constitution were some highlights of the conservative agenda. Absent bold action on big issues, the GOP is toast.

Yesterday a round of stories popped up about the impending disaster with speculation about who may replace the current leadership team in the House. The Politico piece described "dark clouds hovering" over the current team of Boehner, Blunt and Cole. As their prospective replacements The Politico offered Eric Cantor, Adam Putnam, Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy. How Cantor and Putnam would not be tainted with the failures of the current team is beyond me. But perhaps they are far enough down on the totem pole that that can make a good argument to their colleagues that their advice was not heeded.

Interestingly no stories brought up the potential for new leadership in the Senate. If House leadership has been uninspired, Senate leadership has been downright counter productive at best, nefarious at worst. It seems to me that any significant GOP losses in November (which there will be) is a strong argument for housecleaning in both chambers.

The strongest argument for new leadership in November is being made right now. Newt Gingrich's plea has not been alone. Since the 2006 election conservative voices have been making the exact case that Gingrich did repeatedly. But the pleas have all fallen on deaf ears in leadership circles. To Boehner's credit, he has been somewhat more responsive than his Senate counterpart, but he still has lacked the courage to shake things up the way they must be.

So the continued denial of reality on the part of GOP congressional leadership should be damning in a post-2008 GOP bloodbath world.

As for Gingrich's very public scolding...I suspect this has more to do with laying the groundwork for a post-election coup than it does with actually changing course right now. Of course Gingrich would be happy if leadership took up his agenda and pushed it. But he knows full well that conservatives have been agitating within Congress for this kind of push for over a year. He also knows full well that there is zero desire within the House and Senate GOP caucuses to adopt a bold agenda. So putting the agenda out there now, along with the warning, is more about winning the argument in November.

Speaking of that argument, don't think the forces of the status quo are not preparing right now to win it as well. They will blame the Gingrich's of the world for causing division and detracting from the "message" (which has been, "we may be bad, but those evil Democrats are way worse." This doesn't exactly work in a political landscape where a generic Republican loses to a generic Democrat 55-32). They will point the finger at reformers in Congress too. All those pesky conservatives who forced the GOP to take votes on issues of conservative principle, thereby highlighting GOP abandonment of their foundational issues, will be blamed for losses.

Of course it is all insane, but they will do it.

It is imperative that conservatives be ready with their best arguments. The GOP cannot suffer through another congressional session with uninspired leadership. The Party cannot afford it. More importantly, the country cannot afford it.