Catching up on the economy

I had the chance to catch up on reading this weekend and found a couple tidbits I thought needed to be passed along.

Many of the talking heads suggest we are in recession I'm not convinced just yet but do recognize that there are a set of conflicting forces at work that could push us off the cliff to a deep and painful recession. The WSJ outlined a few of these on Friday. On the plus side we have a depreciating currency which bolsters exports and reduces our trade deficit. These exports translate into job stability and potentially economic expansion. The complication is that as the dollar depreciates the cost of inputs like oil goes up, hampering expansion.

The WSJ argues that a global expansion is needed to keep the US out of recession. This I agree with wholeheartedly. The most recent global growth is the result of the US consumers resilient spending. Its about time that the rest of the world pick up the slack as our consumers have reached capacity. If the rest of the world economy can continue growing without the US consumer we are likely in for a period of trade balance corrections and stability. If not, we can expect recession with a capital 'R'.