Romney vs. Huckabee in 2012

It's way too early to start making predictions but I'm going to do it anyway. Senator McCain certainly has a chance of winning this November, but right now the smart money is on Senator Obama. If Obama does win, who will be the Republican nominee in 2012? A story in the Washington Post today sheds light on this question, pointing out the recent trend in Republican politics of nominating the candidate that came in second in the previous contest.

When you go back more than 30 years to the birth of the modern presidential primary system, in fact, the only Republican to have won his party's nomination for president without having come in second in the previous open primary election was George W. Bush, who sought the presidency for the first time in 2000. But even this is barely an exception to the rule, because the Republican who came in second in the previous open election, in 1996, was Pat Buchanan -- and he ran for president in 2000 as the candidate of the Reform Party.

At this point in the campaign, Romney is considered the runner up to McCain and is well-positioned to win the nomination in four years should McCain lose this November. This explains why Governor Huckabee has stubbornly refused to withdraw from the race. He wants to run again and wants to be seen as the true runner up in this year's contest. Hopefully Republicans will remember that this race was really between McCain and Romney, and that it was Romney who quickly withdrew and graciously backed the eventual nominee.