Today, during my usual morning intake of Morning Joe, I watched as Pat Buchanan and Tom Friedman agreed that our addiction to oil can only be broken with an import tariff. This discussion was based on Friedman's new book and articles he has written in the past. So, why does this matter?
I believe it marks a unique point in our current events since protectionist conservatives (yes, they exist and Buchanan has always been one. See the Nixon Administration for evidence of this.) and liberal Greenies see the same solution to different problems. In Buchanan's case, protection of "Made in USA" label and in Friedman's case, the reduction of greenhouse gases. The trouble is that if this coalition gains traction we will start down the slippery slope of protectionism and add substantial recessionary pressure to the US economy.
The argument for import tariffs is that the tariff will further increase the price of gasoline, shrinking demand. Additionally, the tariff would generate revenue for the US treasury which could be used for the various and sundry purposes the Federal Government finds to spend our money. The argument goes that instead of feeding foreign government coffers we will feed our government coffers.
Well let's look at some of the inherent problems with a tariff:
-First, the world price for oil will not change. The only place where the price will change is where the tariff is in place (the US).
-If you could up with an argument that the price for oil would drop then the US would be subsidizing world economic growth at our expense. The reason is that while the world would be paying a new low price, the US would still pay a high price. This price differential would give world industry a competitive advantage over US industry.
-There would be a fine balance between government receipts created from the tariff and economic activity lost for the same reason. Could government get it right? Likely not. It would probably require a good bit of tinkering.
-Tangentially, RECESSION and INFLATION. Adding a fixed tariff would drive up prices for energy intensive goods (everything is energy intensive) this would likely drive up prices and would likely stifle growth and cause recession. I defy policymakers to come up with a way that this could be avoided. The only scenario under which it can be is to have an alternative source. Currently, this alternative does not exist. Oh, and please don't say corn based ethanol.
-Finally, increasing the price of oil would disproportionally effect those without discretionary income i.e. the suburban, rural poor, who rely exclusively on automobile transportation.
Hopefully policymakers will see the myriad issues related to tariff increases. Even more importantly, let's hope Pat Buchanan and Tom Friedman drop the subject.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
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